Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
